Real Estate Market Activity in Scottsdale and Phoenix  DEC  2021 JAN 2022-  PARADISE VALLEY AZ IS UP 27%  and SCOTTSDALE

IS UP 27.2% !!!

SPECIAL FEATURE SEE - LATEST NOTES ON - "HAVE WE REACHED THE TOP OF THE MARKET"- SEE BELOW

Here are the basics - the ARMLS (Realtor Data and Statistics site) numbers for DEC  2021 compared with DEC, 2020 for all areas & types: Please call me.. Love to talk to you for any specific home pricing updates or to inquire about any community or home of interest.

BELOW IS THE CHART FOR RECORD SETTING Per Square Foot Sale Price Numbers.

 

  • Pending Listings: - Call for up to minute
  • Active listings-  JUST AT 4,500 - (HOMES OVER 1,500SF) DEC 2021 Within Phoenix Metro in all prices -in a land area of over 515 Square Miles
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): Call for up to minute
  • Monthly Sales: Call for up to minute - However inventory on 400,000 to 800,000 creeping up with inventory for homes at 1.5 and above
    continuing to be low.
  • Highest Gainer this Month - ANTHEM Arizona up 31.9% over last year
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: Call for up to minute

Is there any sign of the upward surge in pricing losing pace. Not at this time.

MORE DEC - JAN REAL ESTATE DATA .
Below are charts showing real estate market activity in the Phoenix area with an emphasis on Scottsdale and Paradise Valley from DEC 2021. The chart is based on statistical data from sold home prices and denotes the "per square foot "sold" home price increases and decreases between now and the corresponding period in 2020.  As noted above,  in last 60 days, real estate prices continue to jump with high demand, extremely low inventory.  There is no slow down in sight. Buyers beware!!  And the scary part is, most of the Real Estate agents out there will NOT be guiding buyers with the extreme expertise and integrity required in this market. Looking for drivers for this market high demand from families needing homes (not investors ) and interest rates my clients are getting are 2.25% for jumbo loans! Noting : Buyers sitting on the fence now.. are doing so due to lack of quality inventory.
To buyers comparing this to the 2008 crash, there are two very different drivers pushing the market. Whereas in 2004 through 2006 there were a significant number of investors buying homes 2, 3 and 4 homes almost like a pyramid scheme. now the market is being driven by solid demand from real buyers in the Phoenix area and a huge influx of buyers recognizing the amazing lifestyle the Scottsdale - Phoenix area represents.
The reports /charts below are always based on sold closings, so inherently about 45 days behind the actual market. I can share from showing and selling homes seven days a week ( In Paradise Valley and Scottsdale) there are often bidding wars for homes under 1.5m that is presented well, has a good floor plan and is priced reasonably within market conditions.
HAVE WE REACHED THE TOP OF THE MARKET?? (see notes below) LET'S LOOK AT THE MARKET INDEX REPORT.
First - What is "Market Index"
Market Index -  is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from
the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below
100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
*** What does this month's Market Index Show ?

Supply has been heading lower again, though not quite at the speed it did this time last year.

There is little support in the data for the popular theory that the market is cooling and heading back to normal. The normal balanced reading for the CMI is 100 and we are currently at 382.5 and heading northeast.

House price appreciation is a very long way from normal, with the monthly average $/SF up 26% from this time last year. Yes this is down from the freakish 40% we saw on May 25, but the pressure on prices is still upward.

If we are to see the market return to normal at some point, a reduction in demand is not sufficient. We would need to see a huge rise in supply too.

Once again, we have 14 cities where the market moved in favor of sellers over the last month and only 3 where the market moved in favor of buyers. The average change over the past month was +7.2%, having been +6.2% last week.

As expected, the trend continues to strengthen in favor of sellers although not as quickly as it moved this time last year.

The lower end of the market (e.g. Avondale, Buckeye, Maricopa) is still looking strong, but not as strong as the mid-range (e.g. Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Goodyear). The higher end (e.g. Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek), is extremely strong, although Paradise Valley (one of my selects as best buy cities in Arizona)  is seeing falling demand over the past month as supply falls.

 

REPORT UPDATED FOR YOU EVERY MONTH -  JANUARY NUMBERS OUT BY  22nd.
Please call me for a more detailed analysis.  My pleasure to review them with you.
The next Home Sales report in mid/late JANUARY . Please call anytime if you are looking for excellent representation buying or selling a home. Always done with integrity.

Again please enjoy the graphs and market report and please call me for additional information. Noting again.

Call Michael Chaisson Realtor RL Sotheby's International Realty Specializing in luxury homes in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and the greater Phoenix area. 480-450-4632

Entire report updated every 35 days.