Article published May 30- 2020- How fast the market changes.
I am not sure if you are like research and data as it pertains to your home search in Phoenix area.. but just in case, here is a bit of historical data (from previous high market 2005 -2008) to analyze in comparison with data from current market. Many homebuyers drawing comparisons due to the pandemic. A good historical 'lesson' to be taken from the statistical market 'extremes' we've seen in the current real estate market is how the Active Listings in Chart 1 (Below) exploded from a low in April of 2005 (8,342 active listings - relatively few - "active listings" in high demand period) to over 58,000 in October of 2007 - (as the market decline began- low demand - supply and demand economics -primary driver of price increases... or decreases) the consequence of the rise and fall in Demand from 2004 through 2007, shown in Chart 2.
Chart 1: Active Listings Long Term
Charts 2 and 3 below are also instructive, showing in Chart 2 how even as Sales per Month were plummeting, reaching their low point in January of 2008 of 2,517, Chart 3 shows Sales Prices continuing to rise for 18 months (that red line in Chart 3 shows prices continuing rising for 18 months, even as sales numbers were falling, just before the dramatic, but inevitable collapse of prices). As we discussed... home sellers are a typically pushing for highest dollar sale price irregardless of "writing on the wall" until- insurmountable market pressures force a price reduction. I saw this "cest for profit" - over and over again between 2007 to 2009.
Historical 'lesson': Sales Prices are a lagging indicator.
Chart 2: Sales per Month Long Term:
Chart 3: Average Sales Price Long Term:
To this day, it is useful to continue to measure current market prices against 'the peak' back in 2007 (and other markets) as a barometer of the market.
You can see in Chart 3 how Phoenix has exceeded 'the peak set in 2007' Valley-wide in 2020.
It's an interesting to see how areas of interest compares with the peak e.g. communities like Arcadia have far exceeded the peak in 2007, while other areas like North Scottsdale and Gilbert are riding at or just under the peak.
These Long Term trend charts tend to indicate that in spite of the real estate crash in 2008, the consistent Demand evidenced in Sales relative to Supply of Actives continues to inform us that for the near term, (not a predictor) we will not see any dramatic price decreases.
The Under Contract stat is our best near term predictor. We see it as not only a welcome sign of recovery and market resilience, which is of this writing, off only 2.39% year-over-year, whereas... in the first two weeks of the lock down, new contracts were down between 55% and 72% depending on area and price range. It's a very fluid situation. Please feel to call with questions.
Michael Chaisson, Realtor
RL Sotheby's International Realty
Premier Client Services
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