Article published Jan 12 - 2023 - How fast the market changes.
Phoenix Homes Sales 2023 VS 2008
I am not sure if you enjoy research and data, as it pertains to your home search in the Phoenix/Scottsdale area. But, just in case. Following is a bit of historical data and analysis from 2005 to 2008. In order to compare Phoenix Homes Sales 2023 VS 2008. Many home-buyers are looking for comparisons, lessons and insight due to the current market fluctuation.
A good historical 'lesson' to be taken from the statistical market 'extremes' we've seen in the current real estate market is. How the 'Active home Listings' in Chart 1 (Below) exploded from a low in April of 2005 (8,342 active listings - relatively few - "active listings" in a high demand period) to over 58,000 in October of 2007. - as the market decline began. In Short, "Supply versus demand economics take effect". Unquestionably a definitive driver of price increases OR decreases. The consequence of the rise and fall in housing demand from 2004 through 2007. Shown in Chart 2.
Chart 1: Active Listings Long Term
Home Prices are Not a Definitive Market Indicator
Charts 2 and 3 below are also instructive. Showing in Chart 2 how even as Sales per Month were plummeting, reaching their low point in January of 2008 of 2,517 sales, Chart 3 shows Sales Prices continuing to rise for 18 months. (That orange line in Chart 3 shows prices continuing rising for 18 months, even as sales numbers were falling, just before the dramatic, but inevitable collapse of prices). To put it differently - Sellers were raising prices with 50,000 plus active listings and near record low sales.
As we discussed... home sellers are a typically pushing for highest dollar sale price regardless of "writing on the wall" until- insurmountable market pressures force a price reduction. I saw this "Push for profit" - from sellers over and over again between 2007 to 2009.
Historical 'lesson':Sales Prices are a lagging indicator.
Chart 2-3: Sales per Month in 2007 drop (Orange) as Prices Rise (Green) Sales Per M. 2001 -2020
Chart 3: Average Sales Price Long Term:
Real Estate Markets Repeat Themselves
To this day. It is useful to continue to measure current market prices/sales against 'the peak' back in 2007 as a barometer of the market... And dare I say, components of those insights and factors" offer insight into future market(s). With this intention bookmark this article. Phoenix Homes Sales 2023 VS 2008.
You can see in Chart 3 how Phoenix had exceeded 'the peak average home price set in 2007' Valley-wide back in 2020 and has continued to surpass the peak monthly- with only short pauses into 2023.
By comparison, it is interesting to see how pricing in areas of highest interest compares with 'the peak in 07'. In fact, communities like Arcadia, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale have far exceeded the peak pricing of 2006 - 2007.
These Long Term trend charts tend to indicate that in spite of the real estate crash in 2008, the consistent demand evidenced in Sales, relative to supply of actives, continues to inform us - that for the near term, (not a predictor) we will not see any 'dramatic" price decreases.
Michael Chaisson, Realtor
480.450.4632
RL Sotheby's International Realty
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